Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan thinks Bitcoin will buck its typical four-year market cycle and keep climbing through the latter part of 2026. His recent statements contradict the popular belief that Bitcoin reaches its summit sometime just after a halving event.
‘Four-Year Cycle Is Dead,’ declares Hougan
In a recent X (formerly Twitter) video post, Hougan proudly stated that the legacy four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is “dead.” He thinks its effect continues to wane with time, as each halving is “half as important” as Bitcoin continues to get older. Macro conditions—such as bullish interest rate trends—continue to dominate.
He likewise mentioned enduring regulatory clarity and growing institutional interest as stabilizing factors that work to reduce the chances for sharp corrections. “Blow-up risk is muted due to better regulation and institutionalization,” Hougan explained.
Institutional Drive Could Fuel Long-Term Expansion
Hougan believed pro-crypto long-term driving factors—such as increased institutional adoption—are currently more powerful than the halving cycle. He thinks Bitcoin will see a “sustained steady boom” instead of a dramatic supercycle. Nevertheless, he did note the rising number of Bitcoin treasury firms—businesses purchasing BTC with debt or fresh equity—can present cyclical risks.
Asset manager VanEck recently seconded this worry when it warned that such companies might get overleveraged when the price of Bitcoin plummets sharply. Nevertheless, optimism prevails for Hougan as he stated, “I bet 2026 is an up year.”
Analysts Divided on Market Trend
Not all share the same opinion as Hougan. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital opines the prevailing trends could as well apply to the current market with the possibility reaching its peak sometime in October 2025—an estimated 550 days following the April 2024 halving. Conversely, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently proclaimed the four-year cycle as outdated with reference to the changed behavior of the whales.
According to Ju, previous cycles saw whales selling to retail investors. This time, however, “old whales sell to new long-term whales,” indicating that institutional demand is stronger than ever.
Currently, Bitcoin is selling at $118,169—up more than 10% over the past 30 days—stoking renewed speculation about whether the cycle is any different this time around.
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