Portugal’s gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has issued an order for the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket to stop offering its services within the country and be blocked from operation due to the platform’s lack of authorization and violation of Portuguese gambling laws. The decision follows unusually high trading activity on presidential election markets and concerns about potential insider information influencing bets.
The regulator notified Polymarket to cease its activity in Portugal within 48 hours; however, the platform remained accessible locally at the time of reporting, prompting the SRIJ to prepare blocking orders for internet service providers to restrict access.
Regulator Cites Illegality and Political Betting Ban
According to the SRIJ, Polymarket’s operations in Portugal are illegal because the platform lacks a license to offer gambling or betting services in the country. Under Portuguese law, platforms that organize or facilitate bets on political events are expressly prohibited from operating without proper authorization.
The regulator told media outlet Renascença that it only recently became aware of Polymarket’s activities and subsequently determined that the platform is not authorized under national gambling legislation. As such, the SRIJ is moving to enforce a blocking order through internet service operators to prevent Mexican residents from accessing the service.
Portuguese law empowers the SRIJ to inform internet service providers to block access to unlicensed gambling platforms within 48 hours of a notification of illegal operations, although enforcement in practice can vary.
Election Markets Spark Regulatory Scrutiny
Polymarket’s markets tied to Portugal’s 2026 presidential election saw unusually large volumes of activity in the hours leading up to official results. Renascença reported that more than €4 million was invested on these election prediction markets shortly before vote tallies were released, contributing to a total election-related trading volume exceeding €110 million on the platform.
The timing and scale of bets raised concerns about “inside trading” and the possible circulation of leaked exit polls prior to their official release. The regulator’s statement suggested that sudden shifts in probabilities during the critical hours before polls closed may have reflected information asymmetry, prompting heightened scrutiny from authorities.
While Renascença’s report did not explicitly conclude that insider trading occurred, the high volume and timing of activity in politically sensitive markets drew regulatory attention and reinforced the SRIJ’s stance that such markets require formal oversight or prohibition under local law.
Prediction Markets and Gambling Regulation
Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market where users trade positions on the outcomes of real-world events — including politics, economics, and other subjects — using cryptocurrency, typically USDC. The platform’s design enables users to buy “shares” tied to specific outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities rather than fixed odds.
However, many global regulators view these platforms as gambling services rather than financial instruments, particularly when markets involve political or other non-financial outcomes. Similar actions have taken place in other jurisdictions: Belgium’s gambling authority has blacklisted Polymarket for non-compliance with local laws, and regulators in countries such as Romania have blocked access and labeled the platform as unlicensed gambling after significant election-related activity.
Under Portuguese gambling regulation, operators must obtain a license from the SRIJ to offer bets or wagering services, and activities without authorization can result in blocking orders or other enforcement actions by internet service providers.
Industry Reaction and Broader Implications
Polymarket’s regulatory challenges underscore a broader tension between decentralized cryptocurrency applications and traditional gambling laws in Europe and beyond. Regulators argue that platforms facilitating bets on political or real-world outcomes without oversight can pose risks to market integrity, financial transparency, and consumer protection.
Meanwhile, enforcement varies globally: while some jurisdictions like the United States have approached prediction markets through financial regulation and licensing (notably after Polymarket acquired a U.S. derivatives exchange), others treat these platforms as unlicensed gambling services subject to blocking or penalties.
As regulatory scrutiny intensifies across multiple countries, Polymarket and similar platforms may face increased pressure to adjust business models, pursue licensing, or limit operations in jurisdictions with strict gambling laws.
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