The outlook for a U.S. XRP-spot ETF remains unclear as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pauses ETF products with XRP exposure, despite greenlighting other crypto ETFs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $120,000 on rising institutional demand8 and reports that JPMorgan may launch crypto-backed loans.
SEC Freezes Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs with XRP Exposure
The SEC recently approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) to convert into an ETF but issued a stay order, delaying its launch. The fund provides exposure to BTC (73.2%), ETH (14.2%), and XRP (6.7%), among other assets.
Similarly, the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) received approval to convert into an ETF earlier this month but faces the same stay order. Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, criticized the move, saying:
“Both of these should be allowed to convert/uplist ASAP. Bizarre situation.”
The SEC’s stance is puzzling given it allowed the Rex Osprey Solana (SOL) ETF to launch on July 2, despite delaying both BITW and GDLC. Analysts believe the XRP litigation with Ripple may be influencing the SEC’s decision to hold off on ETFs tied to XRP exposure.
Ripple Case Update: SEC Appeal Vote in Focus
The SEC is expected to vote soon on whether to drop its appeal of the 2023 ruling on Ripple’s Programmatic Sales of XRP. A closed meeting on July 24 may include a vote, though the agenda is not public.
Legal experts predict the SEC will likely drop the appeal, potentially unlocking progress for XRP-spot ETFs. Until then, the uncertainty may limit XRP price momentum.
XRP Price Outlook
On Tuesday, July 22, XRP slipped 0.03% to $3.5517, following a 2.8% rally on Monday.
- Bullish Scenario: A breakout above the July 18 all-time high of $3.6629 could push XRP toward $4, with $5 as the next target.
- Bearish Scenario: A drop below $3.4 could expose the $3 level.
BTC Hits $120K on JPMorgan News and Institutional Demand
While XRP traded sideways, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $120,219 after reports emerged that JPMorgan plans to offer crypto-backed loans next year. This marks a major shift for CEO Jamie Dimon, who previously called Bitcoin a “fraud.”
Adding to bullish sentiment, Trump Media disclosed $2 billion in BTC and bitcoin-linked securities, making up two-thirds of its liquid assets.
Despite the rally, U.S. BTC-spot ETFs broke a 12-day inflow streak on July 21, with $68 million in net outflows recorded on July 22.
Key flows included:
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB): -$42.3M
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): -$33.2M
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): +$7.5M
BTC Price Outlook
BTC closed at $119,980 on July 22, up 2.2% amid positive institutional news.
- Bullish Scenario: Continued CLARITY Act progress, ETF inflows, and dovish Federal Reserve signals could drive BTC toward its ATH of $122,057.
- Bearish Scenario: ETF outflows, legislative delays, or hawkish Fed policy could push BTC back toward $115,000.
What to Watch
- Ripple Case: SEC’s potential vote on dropping the XRP appeal.
- Legislation: CLARITY Act developments and crypto stockpiling strategies.
- ETF Flows: Key for BTC price direction.
- Fed Signals: Market reaction to monetary policy guidance.
