JPMorgan Says Coinbase Global’s Potential “Base” Token Could Unlock $12 B–$34 B in Value — Equity Upside of $4 B–$12 B for Coinbase

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts estimate that a potential native token for Coinbase’s Layer-2 blockchain Base could reach a market capitalisation between US $12 billion and US $34 billion, creating an equity value for Coinbase of roughly US $4 billion to US $12 billion if Coinbase retains about 40 % of the token supply. The report also highlights Coinbase’s existing income stream from USD Coin (USDC) reserve interest—approximately US $400 million annually—as part of its monetisation strategy.

Key Findings from the Report

• The analysts upgraded Coinbase’s stock rating to “Overweight” from “Neutral” and raised the price target to about US $404 per share, implying a roughly 15 % upside from earlier levels.
• According to the breakdown:
  • Base token reachable market cap: US $12 B–US $34 B.
  • Coinbase’s share (~40% of supply) translates to US $4 B–US $12 B of value.
  • Coinbase’s current USDC-based income (interest on reserves) is estimated around US $400 M annually.

Why This Matters

• New monetisation path: While Coinbase already earns revenue from trading fees, custody and USDC interest, the launch of a Base token offers a scalable infrastructure revenue model that aligns with the growth of the Base network.
• Infrastructure play vs exchange fee play: The report suggests Coinbase could shift its exposure from solely being an exchange to being a broader crypto-infrastructure provider via Base, increasing long-term optionality.
• Investor sentiment shift: An upgraded rating and clear token-economics scenario may attract more institutional capital into Coinbase’s equity, impacting both stock valuation and crypto ecosystem perceptions.
• Competitive differentiation: Not all crypto exchanges control⁴ their own layer-2 chain; Coinbase’s Base gives it a unique platform to capture value if the token-economics are designed well.

Risks & Considerations

• Token launch uncertainty: As of now, Coinbase has not officially launched a Base-token, so the estimates remain speculative. Execution, regulatory approval and token-distribution design will all matter.
• Regulatory/regime risk: Token economics tied to a publicly traded company must navigate securities laws, disclosure rules and marketplace regulation — especially in the U.S.
• Distribution design: How token supply is distributed (developers, validators, community, Coinbase) will impact actual value capture by Coinbase and possible dilution risks.
• Network execution: For the token to achieve high value, the Base chain must continue to grow — issues with adoption, security or scaling could impair value projection.
• Valuation multiples: JPMorgan’s assumptions are ambitious; if network growth slows or token utility is limited, actual market cap may fall well short of the US $12 B–US $34 B range.

What to Watch Next

1. Coinbase announcements: Scrutinise for an official statement⁶ or filing regarding a Base token, token-sale mechanics or token-allocation schedule.
2. Base network growth metrics: Growth in Total Value Locked (TVL), number of dApps, active users and transaction volume — all indicators of underlying network health.
3. Token-economics disclosures: Whitepaper, governance model, staking rewards, supply schedule, vesting periods and Coinbase’s share of distribution.
4. Regulatory statements: U.S. securities, crypto and exchange regulators may issue guidance or comment on tokens issued by exchanges — critical for compliance and listing viability.
5. Coinbase earnings and USDC dynamics: How Coinbase leverages USDC reserve income and subscription services (e.g., Coinbase One) will show whether the non-token revenue paths are progressing.

Bottom Line

JPMorgan’s report positions a Base token as a landmark monetisation lever for Coinbase, estimating a possible token market cap of US $12 B to US $34 B and implying a US $4 B–US $12 B value to Coinbase. Combined with USDC reserve income and existing infrastructure, the report suggests Coinbase may increasingly resemble an infrastructure-platform company, not just a crypto exchange. However, execution, regulatory clarity and token-economics design will determine whether this high-end scenario materialises.

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