Fred Thiel, executive director of a premier Bitcoin mining enterprise MARA Holdings, has put out a warning regarding the very trend of the number of the firms that are filling up their treasuries with Bitcoin. Thiel, during a recent earnings conference, cautioned that the stockpiling of Bitcoin by a herd of firms just like Strategy, which could lead to a deserted return resulting from oversupply and unrest, was what was in store.
Thiel, whose organization has the second-biggest BTC hoard among publicly traded companies, stated that he was concerned about his view that the market is full of treasury-oriented companies. He remarked that while companies such as Strategy have created value for shareholders, the spreading of that success among thousands of other companies might not be feasible.
He referred to market data that shows the total amount of Bitcoin held by treasury firms that have almost tripled in the last year to over 774,000 BTC. Thiel is confident that such a rapid and massive gathering, mainly if it takes place at prices that are at the peak of the market, could result in the selling out of positions, if the trend unexpectedly reverses.
Among most importantly risks that he has mentioned is the probable effect to mNAV which is a ratio that takes a look at a company’s value and the crypto assets it owns. Thiel explained that if mNAV falls along with a market decline and therefore companies might find themselves in a situation of having to liquidate their positions, something that has happened before with Grayscale when its trust went below the net asset value.
Thiel further suggested that Bitcoin treasury companies, unlike ETFs, are more exposed to volatility. He even likened the current enthusiasm to the 2017 ICO bubble, warning that too many players in one space can collapse long-term gains for all involved.
While MARA has itself raised nearly $940 million for future Bitcoin purchases, Thiel emphasized the firm’s distinction—most of its Bitcoin was mined, not bought. Despite posting record earnings this quarter, MARA’s stock saw only a slight uptick.
Thiel concluded by noting that large holders are starting to sell, hinting at possible market fatigue. While he doesn’t foresee an extreme crash, he does anticipate a 20–30% correction if demand begins to soften.
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